One year ahead of the 2027 presidential election, the Ifop-Fiducial barometer conducted for Le Figaro and Sud Radio highlights the absence of a natural candidate. As Frédéric Dabi points out, “no one has a majority of wishes”, probably reflecting the fragmentation of the offer and a rejection of political personnel.
In this fragmented landscape, the Rassemblement National remains the strongest bloc. Jordan Bardella comes out on top with 44% of people wishing to be a candidate, and above all 74% predicting that he will be the most likely candidate in 2027. He is now well ahead of Marine Le Pen (39% wish, 52% forecast), weakened by the legal uncertainties weighing on her future. This development reflects a possible leadership shift within the RN. It should be noted that 77% of RN sympathizers consider that Marine Le Pen will be a candidate in the next presidential election.
In the central bloc, the hierarchy remains open, but Édouard Philippe is still ahead of the pack. He receives 36% of wishes and above all 67% of predictions (+8 points), making him the most credible candidate in this area. However, Gabriel Attal is gaining ground (31% wishful thinking, 54% prediction), buoyed by strong media exposure.
On the right, the situation appears more stable. Bruno Retailleau came out on top with 28% of wishes and 54% of predictions (+11), well ahead of his rivals. In particular, he outranks Xavier Bertrand, Michel Barnier and Laurent Wauquiez. According to Frédéric Dabi, “he has managed to lock in his candidacy”, making him the most likely representative of his camp.
On the left, the situation is the opposite: no single figure has established a lasting position. Raphaël Glucksmann tops the list (26%), ahead of François Hollande (22%, up) and Bernard Cazeneuve (18%).
At the same time, Jean-Luc Mélenchon retains a central position: 57% of French people consider his candidacy likely. However, only 16% would like to see him run (against 72% who would not like him at all, corresponding to the highest rejection rate). On the other hand, François Ruffin is gaining ground (24% in favor, +4), appearing as a credible alternative on the left.
Lastly, a number of personalities from civil society, such as Michel-Édouard Leclerc (20% preferred) and Patrick Sébastien (15%), are attracting considerable interest. However, their prediction scores remain low, indicating a lack of electoral credibility. As Frédéric Dabi points out, “the French have accepted that they won’t be able to go all the way”.
