With less than a year to go to the 2027 presidential election, the Ifop survey for Paris Match confirms the difficulty for the social-democrat camp to come up with a candidacy that generates genuine desire in public opinion. In a political arena already fraught with the risk of candidacy gridlock, Raphaël Glucksmann now appears to be better placed than François Hollande, yet he has failed to generate a massive support dynamic.
A quarter of French people would like Raphaël Glucksmann to be a candidate in the next presidential election (25%), compared with just 16% for François Hollande. The Eurodeputy thus remains at a level close to previous measurements, while the former president has fallen back sharply since reaching 22% in April 2026.
The gap is even wider on the left, where Raphaël Glucksmann appears to be the most popular option. Among left-wing sympathizers, his candidacy was favored by 49%, compared with 23% for François Hollande. This lead is particularly true among Socialist sympathizers, 65% of whom would like Raphaël Glucksmann to run, versus 45% for François Hollande, as well as among Ecologist sympathizers, 41% versus 13%.
Image traits confirm this contrasting reading. François Hollande retains his personal resources: he is judged more likeable than Raphaël Glucksmann, 51% versus 37%, and more open to dialogue, 45% versus 37%. But the MEP takes the lead on dimensions more directly associated with political credibility, such as courage (32% vs. 26%), competence (31% vs. 24%), and understanding of French people’s lives (27% vs. 23%). When it comes to presidential stature, none of the candidates really succeeded in establishing themselves: 25% for François Hollande, 24% for Raphaël Glucksmann.
It is precisely on this point that the result is most worrying for the former president. Despite his experience at the Élysée Palace, François Hollande no longer has a decisive advantage when it comes to presidential stature. Ifop managing director Frédéric Dabi sees this as the persistent weight of the 2012-2017 quinquennium, the 2017 non-candidacy and the reproach levelled by some French people at having contributed to the rise of Emmanuel Macron.
