Ifop for LCI, Sud Radio and Le Figaro publishes a major survey of voting intentions for the next presidential election: the election of renewal.nnAgainst a backdrop of maximum political uncertainty (with the exception of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s candidacy), we tested 11 first-round configurations for the first time!nnWhatever the scenario tested, the Rassemblement National came out clearly on top, with voting intentions of between 32% and 34%. Despite a slight decline compared to February (-1 to -3 points), this level remains some 10 points higher than the score obtained by Marine Le Pen in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. Under our assumptions, Jordan Bardella would score slightly higher than Marine Le Pen (by almost 2 points), and would have a lead of around 14 points over his main competitor in the first round. The RN’s electoral base remains particularly solid. The “gender gap” has all but disappeared (36% among women, 32% among men), and the vote appears relatively homogenous across generations, with the exception of 18-24 year-olds (25%). On the other hand, the RN remains much weaker among higher education graduates (10% among those with a 2nd or 3rd degree). Beyond its electoral base, it also attracts 14% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2022 voters and 11% of Emmanuel Macron voters.nnWithin the central bloc, the competition between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal remains open. Both appear capable of reaching the second round in almost all the configurations tested (10 out of 11 hypotheses). However, the advantage remains with Édouard Philippe: when he is the only candidate from the central bloc, he garners 18% of voting intentions, compared with 16% for Gabriel Attal. And if both run simultaneously, E. Philippe (14%) is well ahead of G. Attal (9%).nnThe two central bloc candidates have been gaining ground since February. Édouard Philippe gained 2 points (18%, up from 16% in February), while Gabriel Attal recorded the biggest increase of the period with +5 points (16%, up from 11%). Both occupy the common ground and achieve their highest scores among Emmanuel Macron and Valérie Pécresse voters in 2022.nnOn the right, Bruno Retailleau is still struggling to win over the RN and the central bloc. Depending on the assumptions made, he receives between 9% and 11.5% of voting intentions, without ever crossing the 12% threshold. His scores appear to be slightly down on February.nnIn the hypothesis of a disunited Left (excluding LFI), the dispersal of candidates would severely penalize the whole camp. In none of the scenarios tested would a left-wing candidate reach the second round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would systematically remain the best-placed candidate, with 12.5% to 14% of voting intentions. He would be 4 to 6 points ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann (9% to 10%) and François Hollande (8%), and well ahead of the other left-wing candidates: Fabien Roussel (3% to 6%), Marine Tondelier (4% to 5%), Olivier Faure (4%) and François Ruffin (3%). The generational divide remains very marked: the Left appeals above all to younger voters, but is struggling to win over older ones.nnEven in the event of a union of the Left outside LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would retain the lead within the Left, with 15% of voting intentions, ahead of François Hollande (11%) and Raphaël Glucksmann (12%). However, he would still be well ahead of Jordan Bardella (33%-34%) and Édouard Philippe (22%), who would dominate the first round.
Voting intentions in the run-up to the presidential election
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