While nearly one in two French people (48%) did not think Marine Le Pen would run in the presidential election (Ifop Fiducial poll on presidential ambitions for Le Figaro and Sud Radio in May 2026), Ifop, in a poll for LCI and Le Figaro, surveyed French voters on their voting intentions following Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her candidacy on TF1’s 8 p.m. news on Tuesday, July 7.
In the first two simulated rounds, Marine Le Pen would be well ahead with 36% of voting intentions. In two weeks, she has gained 4 percentage points in voting intentions, demonstrating a significant impact of her announcement and clarification among National Rally voters.
The National Rally candidate has seen a significant surge and is now on par with Jordan Bardella: compared to the latest voting intentions, she has closed the gap in categories where he previously led her—gaining 6 points among young people and senior executives; +9 points among business leaders; +16 points among voters who supported V. Pécresse in 2022; and +18 points among those who supported E. Zemmour. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella therefore now appear to be nearly neck and neck.
According to the tested scenario, the RN candidate would thus lead her two main opponents: Edouard Philippe, who would receive 19% of voting intentions in the first scenario, and Gabriel Attal, credited with 15% in the second. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 15% of voting intentions, has never before been shown to be this high in an Ifop poll.
In the second round, Marine Le Pen would win in each of the tested scenarios: she would defeat Edouard Philippe (54% to 46%), Gabriel Attal (55% to 45%), and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (70% to 30%). These second-round projections must, however, be interpreted with great caution, given the many unknowns that remain at this stage regarding the French public’s understanding and perception of the actual scenarios at play.
When asked about Marine Le Pen’s candidacy, 44% of the French public say they are satisfied with her decision. It should be noted, however, that nearly one in five voters (18%) among her 2022 electorate is dissatisfied with her announcement of candidacy, although this does not necessarily mean that these voters will not vote for the National Rally candidate.
