With ten days to go to the first round of municipal elections, Ifop-Fiducial conducted a survey for LCI, Le Parisien and Sud Radio on the political climate in Paris.
In the first round, the list led by Emmanuel Grégoire would come out on top with 33% of voting intentions. The list led by Rachida Dati would be close behind that of the municipal majority, with 29% of voting intentions. A small gap has opened up between the two candidates, but their voter structures are solid and diversified: they perform well in all age and socio-professional categories. The list led by Pierre-Yves Bournazel fell back very slightly (11.5%, -0.5 points since February), and was overtaken for the first time by Sarah Knafo’s list (12%), although this gap remains within the margin of error. The list led by Sophia Chikirou would garner 10% of voting intentions.
A quarter of Parisian voters (24%) said they could still change their mind, compared with 76% who were certain of their vote. This certainty appears higher among voters for the Sarah Knafo (85%) and Rachida Dati (81%) lists.
The situation in Paris belies the adage that the second round confirms the scores of the first round. Of the eight second-round scenarios tested, Rachida Dati would win in five cases, Emmanuel Grégoire would win in two, and the two candidates would be back to back in the case of a triangular with Pierre-Yves Bournazel.
Thus, in the event of a five-way second round, the balance of power would change very little: the list led by E. Grégoire would reach 35% of voting intentions, retaining first place; followed by the R. Dati list (32% of voting intentions). The PY. Bournazel’s list (12% of voting intentions), while the LFI and Reconquête lists (10% and 11% respectively).
In the event of a second round in a quadrangular configuration without PY. Bournazel, the list led by Rachida Dati would reach 40% of voting intentions, slightly ahead of Emmanuel Grégoire’s list (39%). In a quadrangular configuration, this time without the S. Knafo list, the advantage would go to the right: the list led by Rachida Dati would reach 39% of voting intentions, ahead of Emmanuel Grégoire (36%).
In the event of a three-way tie between the E. Grégoire, R. Dati and S. Knafo lists, the left-wing list would win, with 45% of voting intentions; while in the case of a three-way tie between S. Chikirou and E. Grégoire, the left-wing list would win, with 45% of voting intentions. Chikirou / E. Grégoire / R. Dati, the latter would come out on top, whether supported by PY. Bournazel (47%) or by S. Knafo (46%). In the event of a three-way tie between E. Grégoire, PY. Bournazel and R. Dati, the Left and Right lists would both receive 42% of voting intentions.
Finally, in the event of a duel in the second round between the E. Grégoire and R. Dati lists, they would respectively achieve 47% and 53% of voting intentions.
