On the eve of the first presidential debate, organized by MEDEF at Roland-Garros on August 27, 2026, this latest installment of the Ifop-Fiducial presidential election poll for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio—highlights, just over a year and a half before the election, several notable shifts in the balance of power, both on the left and on the right.
Marine Le Pen is projected to lead in all seven scenarios tested, garnering between 33% and 35% of the vote—a 13- to 17-point lead over the candidate in second place. However, the peak recorded in early July would not be fully confirmed: in scenarios where Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal were the sole candidate from the centrist bloc, her support would drop from 36% to 33% and from 36% to 34%, respectively. This slight decline could be interpreted as a partial waning of the impact of her announcement of her candidacy over the summer, without, however, calling into question her largely dominant position.
The main shift in this poll comes from the left, and in particular from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is credited with 16% to 19% depending on the scenario. In scenarios where Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal would be the sole representative of the centrist bloc, the LFI leader would reach 17%, up from 12% and 13%, respectively, in June—a gain of 4 to 5 points in two months. This momentum could even put him in a position to advance to the second round in three of the seven scenarios tested. In the two main reference scenarios, the Mélenchon-Roussel-Tondelier-Glucksmann bloc would now account for 35% to 38% of voting intentions, which would represent an unprecedented level compared to the last two presidential elections in 2017 and 2022.
This rise in support for Jean-Luc Mélenchon would not, however, guarantee him undisputed leadership on the left. Raphaël Glucksmann would also benefit from a surge in support linked to his candidacy, announced on August 23: assuming a single candidate from the non-LFI left, he would garner 15% to 17% of voter intentions, just 1.5 to 3 percentage points behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A genuine contest for leadership of the left could thus emerge.
Within the centrist bloc, Edouard Philippe would maintain a lead over Gabriel Attal, with 18% of the vote as the sole candidate, compared to 14% for Gabriel Attal. Attal’s support, however, would remain close to the level recorded in July, when he garnered 15%, and he would continue to attract a significant portion of the Macronist electorate: 64% of Renaissance supporters and 42% of Emmanuel Macron’s 2022 voters would choose him in this scenario. If they were to run against each other, Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal would receive 14.5% and 8%, respectively. Edouard Philippe thus appears, at this stage, to be the best-positioned candidate in this political space, while Gabriel Attal would retain a significant electoral base.
Finally, Marine Le Pen would remain the favorite in each of the six second-round scenarios tested. However, her lead over Edouard Philippe is now very narrow (52% to 48%), while she would lead Gabriel Attal and François Hollande by 54% to 46%, Raphaël Glucksmann by 55% to 45%, Bruno Retailleau by 58% to 42%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 67% to 33%. Compared to July, Edouard Philippe would gain two points, Gabriel Attal one point, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon three points against Marine Le Pen. These results could thus reflect a slight narrowing of the gap in the second round, without, for the time being, calling into question the RN candidate’s lead.
