The electoral climate in Montpellier

With less than a month to go before the first round of municipal elections, Ifop conducted a survey for Midi Libre and Cercle Mozart on the electoral climate in Montpellier. In a political landscape fragmented by 11 candidates, the main battle in the city is likely to be fought on the left.nnIn the first round, the municipal majority list, led by Michaël Delafosse, would win 35% of voting intentions. The France Insoumise list, led by Nathalie Oziol, would come in behind with 16%. In the wake of this duo, three lists are neck-and-neck: the “divers” list led by Rémi Gaillard (10%), the “Utiles” movement list led by Philippe Saurel (9%), and a civil society list led by Mohed Altrad (9%). Last but not least, the Rassemblement National list led by France Jamet came in at 8%, just two points short of crossing the qualifying threshold. Generational cleavages stand out: Nathalie Oziol’s list seems to appeal more to young people (26% among 18-24 year-olds), as does Rémi Gaillard’s list (also 26% among 18-24 year-olds), while Philippe Saurel’s list is mostly supported by older voters (15% among 50-64 year-olds).nnWhen it comes to the certainty of their choice, almost a third of Montpellier residents (31%) say they can change their mind. This potential reversal is less visible among voters on the list led by Nathalie Oziol, who have a solidly anchored electoral base (80% of her voters say they are sure of their choice). Conversely, Montpellier residents who said they would vote for Rémi Gaillard’s list seemed more undecided: 43% of them said they could still change their minds.nnIn the event of a three-way tie between the municipal majority list, the France Insoumise list and the list led by Philippe Saurel, the advantage would go to outgoing mayor Michaël Delafosse. With 50% of voting intentions, the municipal majority list appears to be in a strong position against the other lists (21% LFI and 29% for Philippe Saurel’s list).nnFinally, in a quadrangular configuration including the list led by Mohed Altrad, the municipal majority list would maintain a clear lead, with 43% of voting intentions. Nathalie Oziol’s list would not suffer from the presence of this fourth candidate, and would garner 22% of the votes cast. In this context, the list led by Mohed Altrad would reach 18%, and that of Philippe Saurel 17%.