Presidential ambition barometer – wave 3

With a year and a half to go before the 2027 presidential election, the third wave of the Ifop-Fiducial barometer for Sud Radio and Le Figaro confirms that the landscape is still open for each personality, both in terms of the desire to run for office and the prognosis of their presence in the first round. nnIn terms of candidacy, no candidate has broken the 50% barrier. Jordan Bardella comes out on top: 44% of French people would like him to run (+1 point since May 2025), ahead of Marine Le Pen at 40% (-2 points). Édouard Philippe completes the trio with 37% (-4 points), ahead of Gabriel Attal (29%, -5 points) and Gérald Darmanin (26%, -2 points). nnOn the radical right, the Bardella-Le Pen tandem remains central, but other profiles are also present. Marion Maréchal obtained 26% of candidacy wishes (-1 point), a level comparable to that of Raphaël Glucksmann (26%, -2 points). Éric Zemmour rose to 19% (+4 points) and Sarah Knafo to 18% (+5 points). We can thus observe a broadening of the potential offer in this camp, but without any personality other than Bardella or Le Pen clearly asserting themselves in terms of appeal. As Frédéric Dabi sums up with regard to the radical right, “there is no substitute candidate: for the French, the candidate will be Bardella”.nnFor the “central bloc”, Édouard Philippe remains the most cited figure. His candidacy is favored by 37% of French people (-4 points), and 59% think he will be a candidate (-4 points). Gabriel Attal is favored by 29% (-5 points), and his candidacy forecast remains high at 52% (+1 point). Gérald Darmanin received 26% of wishes (-2 points) and 40% of predictions (-3 points). nnOn the right, the personalities of the Républicains remain behind on the wish dimension. Bruno Retailleau remains best placed, with 25% of candidates wishing to run, but down sharply (-10 points); his forecast stands at 43% (-3 points). Xavier Bertrand obtains 23% wishes (+1 point) and 34% forecast (stable). Laurent Wauquiez has a wish list of 17% (-4 points) and a forecast of 37% (-4 points), while Valérie Pécresse has a wish list of 12% (-3 points) and a forecast of 20% (-4 points). The LR offer thus remains fragmented, with lower levels of desire to run than in the other blocs.nnOn the left, the hierarchy is more diffuse. Raphaël Glucksmann remains the most desired candidate with 26% (-2 points), and his forecast has risen sharply to 46% (+6 points). Fabien Roussel receives 21% of wishes (-4 points) and 39% of predictions (-3 points), François Ruffin 20% of wishes (-5 points) and 27% of predictions (-5 points). Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains the most popular figure in the forecasts (60%, +7 points), while his wish to be a candidate remains limited (18%, +2 points) but is on the rise. Other personalities (Olivier Faure at 17%, Marine Tondelier at 16%, Yannick Jadot at 18%) are at intermediate levels, with forecasts on the rise, but without any structuring effect on the left-wing space as a whole. nnFinally, a number of more peripheral figures enjoy a significant level of wishes or forecasts, without structuring the landscape: Sébastien Lecornu (22% wishes, 23% forecast), Michel Barnier (16% wishes, 18% forecast), and François Hollande (18% wishes, 22% forecast).