Two months ahead of the municipal elections, Ifop-Fiducial for L’Opinion and Sud Radio asked Parisians about the political climate in Paris.
The first round was marked by uncertainty about the order of finish and the future second round, with four lists expected to reach or exceed 10%.
The left would be in the lead with the E. Grégoire (30% of voting intentions), on a par with Anne Hidalgo’s March 2020 score (29.3%). However, the gap with R. Dati’s list (28%) remains within the margin of error. P-Y. Bournazel would emerge as the third man: his list would obtain 16%, up from November 2025 (+2 points).
For the first time, the S. Knafo list would overtake the RN list (respectively 8% and 7% of voting intentions), even if this gap remains within the margin of error. Sarah Knafo would attract 19% of R. Dati’s electorate in 2020.
There is also a battle for E. Macron’s 2022 presidential electorate between E. Grégoire (who would capture 20%), P-Y. Bournazel (34%) and R. Dati (42%).
In the event of a three-way tie between the S. Chikirou, E. Grégoire and R. Dati, the advantage would go to the right, with 47% of voting intentions. The E. Grégoire list is next at 41%, followed by the S. Chikirou list at 12%.
It is interesting to note that both the E. Grégoire and R. Dati lists have demographically balanced potential voter structures, and capture voters from all categories of the Parisian population.
In the event of a three-way tie between the E. Grégoire, P-Y. Bournazel and R. Dati lists, E. Grégoire and R. Dati would be neck-and-neck at 40% of voting intentions. Similarly, in the event of a duel between the E. Grégoire and R. Dati lists, they would respectively achieve 49% and 51% of voting intentions: close results, but indicating that an alternation is possible in Paris.
