In the first round, the list led by Éric Ciotti would come out on top with 38% of the vote, ahead of the list led by Christian Estrosi (32%). The list led by Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux would obtain 12% and that led by Mireille Damiano 11% of the vote. Further back, the lists led by Cédric Vella and Hélène Granouillac would garner 4% and 3% respectively.
In the event of a quadrangular second round, the list led by Éric Ciotti would come out on top with 40% of the vote, ahead of the list led by Christian Estrosi (36%). Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux would hold on to 14%, while Mireille Damiano would garner 10%. In this configuration, the division of the opposition to Éric Ciotti would prevent Christian Estrosi from closing the gap.
In the event of a triangular second round, the list led by Éric Ciotti would consolidate its lead and reach 43%, against 37% for the list led by Christian Estrosi. The list led by Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux would advance to 20%.
In the event of a duel second round between the lists led by Éric Ciotti and Christian Estrosi, the balance of power would be totally undecided, with both candidates credited with 50/50 voting intentions.
