With one year to go before the election, the RN appears to be the clear front-runner. Jordan Bardella (35–37%) now leads Marine Le Pen (32%) by a wide margin, as if voters were anticipating the outcome of his July 7 court case. According to Frédéric Dabi, “This marks a major turning point. There is a disconnect between the vote for Bardella and the vote for Marine Le Pen.”
The far-right bloc is projected to reach well over 40 points in the first round—a first in the history of the Fifth Republic. According to Frédéric Dabi, “Beyond the specific political and legal context, there is a genuine ‘Lyhanna effect’ that has taken root among voters and is enabling the RN to reach historic levels.”
As for the centrist bloc, Édouard Philippe (19–21%) would maintain his lead over Gabriel Attal (15%) and would even surpass him in a head-to-head matchup (14% vs. 8%). According to Frédéric Dabi, Édouard Philippe owes his lead to his “ability to gain a stronger foothold among voters who are more supportive of Macronism and the right.”
On the right, Bruno Retailleau is projected to settle between 9 and 11 percent, rising to 14 percent when pitted against Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal, as his candidacy could serve as a “catch-all” option.
On the left, divisions prevail. Mélenchon (12–15%) would retain the lead, buoyed by a loyal base and a successful campaign launch. Behind them, the balance of power remains fragmented between Raphael Glucksmann (8–11%) and François Hollande (9%). Next come Marine Tondelier (2.5–4%) and Fabien Roussel (2.5–3%).
