Against the backdrop of the social protests on October 17, this seventh round of the Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio appears to confirm, first and foremost, Marine Le Pen’s dominant position. Depending on the scenarios tested, she would garner between 34% and 38% of the vote in the first round and lead the second-place candidate by 18 to 22 points.
The main takeaway from this round, however, concerns second place, where the race appears wide open. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would come in second in all tested scenarios, with 15% to 20% of the vote, but the margins between the candidates ranked second through fourth remain very narrow. Raphaël Glucksmann would consolidate his position as the leading candidate on the left outside of La France insoumise: he would receive between 12% and 16% depending on the scenarios and would be neck-and-neck with Édouard Philippe—or even ahead of him—in several of them. If Gabriel Attal were to represent the centrist bloc, he would even be tied with Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16%). Within the centrist bloc, Édouard Philippe would continue the decline already observed in mid-October. If he were the only candidate in this bloc, his support would drop from 21% at the end of September to 18% in mid-October, and then to 15% today. As the sole candidate from the centrist bloc, Gabriel Attal would receive 13%, a level that has remained stable since mid-October.
On the right, Bruno Retailleau would range between 5% and 7.5% depending on the scenario, while David Lisnard would garner 7% if he were the sole right-wing candidate. Finally, Natacha Polony, surveyed for the first time, would garner 1% of voting intentions.
In the second round, Marine Le Pen would win in all tested head-to-head matchups and would even widen the gap with her competitors. Édouard Philippe would remain her most competitive opponent (44% vs. 56%), but he would have lost 4 points since the end of August. Next would be Raphaël Glucksmann (43%, down 2 points), Gabriel Attal (42%, down 4 points), and François Hollande (41%, down 5 points). Jean-Luc Mélenchon would trail significantly behind (32% versus 68%).
